DISASTER RISKS IN PAKISTAN
has grown by 350 per cent since independence in 1947. Pakistan will be the second
largest contributor to global population, after China, with a contribution of 133 million till
2025.
Population growth works in
multiple ways to create and
exacerbate vulnerabilities.
Increased population has
pushed people to move and live
in hazard prone locations,
which were traditionally
considered as un-inhabitable;
e.g. flood plains, steep slopes
and coastal areas. Population
growth in upstream locations
has increased the demand for
fuel wood, fodder and timber,
which leads to uncontrolled
forest cutting, and causes
intensified erosion and higher
peak flows. This results in
severe flooding in densely
Livestock and droughts in Balochistan
Balochistan houses about 20 % per cent of the national livestock.
Estimated livestock population in Balochistan in 1999 was: 1,402,000
cattle, 213,000 buffaloes, 10,761,00 sheep and 10, 098,000 goats. The
population of livestock in Balochistan has grown by nine-hundred per cent
since 1947 rising from 2,327,000 to 22,483,000 heads. The total available
dry edible matter output per year (in normal years) amounts to 3.3 million
tones against a feed requirement of animal population, of some 6.3 million
tones. Hence the range lands carrying capacity has been exceeded over
the years by growing animal population.
The drought of 1998-2002 had severe impact on livestock population in
Balochistan. As per estimates of an FAO/WFP joint mission’s report,
farmers lost up to 50 per cent of their sheep and up to 40 per cent of their
goats in the drought in the form of higher mortality and forced culling. It is
estimated that 10. 65 million livestock were affected and 2.18 million
perished. In Sindh 5 million livestock were affected and 30,000 died.
Sources: FAO Crop and food supply assessment mission to the Balochistan province of
Pakistan, June 2000, and Contingency Plan for Drought affected Districts of Balochistan, 2006.
populated plains. Population density in hazard prone regions also means greater loss of life
and property in case of disasters. If the population growth trends continue at current rates,
a far greater number of people would be living in areas prone to earthquakes,
floods
and droughts in the coming years. In order to arrest the rising trends of
vulnerability, Pakistan must confine the growth in its people.
The expansion in animal population in arid and drought prone areas of Pakistan has also
been enormous. A five to nine fold increase in livestock population in Tharparkar and
Balochistan regions respectively has outstripped the carrying capacity of local
rangelands. In-turn this effects local climate and weather patterns, resultantly
exacerbating dry and drought conditions. The size of livestock in these regions needs to
be reduced in order to minimize pressures upon local carrying capacity. This can be
facilitated by providing mechanisms to export livestock from arid regions to other parts
sources of income in arid zones and to minimize extensive dependence upon livestock
based livelihoods.
Urbanization, industrialization and environmental degradation
Pakistan is in transition from an agricultural and rural to a modern industrial economy.
This gradual shift entails rapid urbanization, infrastructure development, environmental
degradation, soil erosion and water and air pollution etc. Urban expansion is happening
faster due to high rural-urban migration. The preference for development of
infrastructure and services in urban centres coupled with opportunities for jobs and
higher incomes have acted as pull factors in attracting educated and uneducated rural
lots to cities. With urbanization, consumption patterns shoot-upwards drastically. City life
NATIONAL DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
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