4.11 The government is responsible for all policy decisions and for policy costings, i.e.
quantifying the direct impact of policy decisions on the public finances. Subject to receiving
sufficient information from the Treasury to do so, the OBR will provide independent scrutiny and
certification of the government’s policy costings. The OBR will state whether it agrees or
disagrees with the government’s costings, or whether it has been given insufficient time or
information to r
each a judgement.
The OBR will also deter
mine any resultant
impact of the
policy on its economic forecast ahead of publication.
4.12 The OBR should not provide normative commentary on the particular merits of
government policies.
4.13 The OBR will have access to government information, subject to any statutory provision or
common law rules. The OBR may require information from HM Revenue and Customs in order to
carry out its duties; however, the OBR will not seek from HM Revenue and Customs information
relating to a person whose identity is contained within or can be deduced from the information.
4.14 The normal process for exchanging information will be set out in advance in a
Memorandum of Understanding between the OBR, the Treasury and other government
departments as appropriate. It shall be for the government to determine policy decisions and to
present and explain them to Parliament and the public. The government will explain its policy
decisions to the OBR to enable the OBR to deliver its duties on a basis that is consistent with
government policy and without assumptions or interpretations of government policy. The
Treasury will advise the OBR, where necessary, on policy in development that may be of
relevance to any forecast or analysis that the OBR is undertaking (for example, policy for possible
inclusion within the Budget will be shared with the OBR ahead of the Budget).
4.15 In addition to forecasts, the OBR will produce an annual sustainability report. At least once
every 2 years, this report will include long-term projections for the public finances and an assessment
of the public sector balance sheet. In the interim years, it will include in-depth analysis of specific
sustainability issues. In producing the sustainability report, if necessary, where a long-term policy has
not yet been set by the government, the OBR will set out the assumptions it makes in its projections
regarding policy transparently. Where a policy has been set, the government will explain its policy
decisions to the OBR, who will ensure projections are consistent with government policy. The OBR
will also produce analysis of past forecasting performance.
4.16
The OBR will also produce a fiscal risks statement setting out the main risks to the public finances, including macroeconomic risks and specific fiscal risks. This will be produced at least
once every 2 years. The government will formally respond to this report as set out in Chapter 3.
4.17
The OBR will also produce an annual Welfare trends report. This will set out the trends and drivers of welfare spending. This report will consider both sources of error compared to the
previous forecast, and longer-term trends in welfare spending.
4.18 The OBR’s economic and fiscal forecasts and other reports and conclusions are essential
inputs to the government’s ongoing policy making, and will enable the Treasury to carry out its
functions and responsibilities. The government will have full and timely access to information
and assistance from the OBR, as the government regards reasonable and necessary, in
consultation with the OBR, to fulfil its policymaking responsibilities. In particular, the OBR will
provide the government with timely access to the information necessary to reach policy
decisions ahead of fiscal policy events.
4.19 In preparing its forecasts and other analysis the OBR may choose to consult the Treasury for
comment or input, but is not obliged to do so. Subject to fulfilling the minimum requirements
contained within the act and within this Charter, the content of OBR publications is completely