17
investment because the scope of a country’s tax treaty network can influence decisions to invest
in that country. However, a given tax treaty’s economic impact depends on the character and
volume of capital and labor flows between treaty countries and the scope for double taxation of
income in the absence of a tax treaty. If the scope for double taxation is limited, then tax treaties
may not be expected to have a significant impact on cross-border economic activity.
23
Moreover, for particular industries, tax treaties
may cause investment to shift from one treaty country to the other treaty country, just as lower barriers to trade may cause a shift in how
businesses make investment and employment decisions between countries. This shift in
investment may result in a more globally efficient allocation of investment but less investment in
a particular treaty country.
The empirical research on the economic effects of tax treaties has not yielded conclusive
results. On the one hand, a number of papers find that tax treaties have no or negative effect, and
the International Monetary Fund’s review of this literature suggests, at least for developing
countries considering tax treaties with developed countries, that whatever economic benefit may
arise from potential increases in foreign direct investment in the resulting from a tax treaty may
be offset by foregone tax revenue that results from limits on source-country taxation;
24
the
amount of capital that flows from a developed country to a developing country is, in general,
substantially greater than the amount of capital that flows from a developing country to a
developed country. On the other hand, some studies suggest that treaties have positive impacts
on cross-border investment.
25
One paper finds that, by facilitating the resolution of transfer
pricing disputes, the mutual agreement procedures in tax treaties can be particularly beneficial
for multinational firms that use inputs whose arm’s-length prices are difficult to determine.
26
Other papers find that while tax treaties encourage entry by firms in a particular country, they
have little impact on firms that already have a presence in the country.
27
In other words, tax
treaties may promote foreign direct investment, but largely through new investment by firms that
are first entering the market and not through increased investment by firms that are already
operating in the market.
23
The Treasury Department has indicated that establishing new tax treaties is partly determined by the
scope of double taxation with respect to income generated from U.S. direct investment. See Testimony of Robert B.
Stack, Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary (International Tax Affairs), U.S. Department of the Treasury, Senate
Committee on Foreign Relations Hearing on the Proposed Tax Protocol with Spain and the Proposed Tax Treaty
with Poland, June 19, 2014, available at http://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Stack_Testimony.pdf
.
24
International Monetary Fund, “Spillovers in Corporation Taxation,” International Monetary Fund Staff
Report, May 9, 2014.
25
Ibid.
26
Bruce A. Blonigen, Lindsay Oldenski, and Nicholas Sly, “The Differential Effects of Bilateral Tax
Treaties,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, vol. 6, no. 2, May 2014, pp. 1-18.
27
See Ronald Davies, Pehr-Johan Norback, and Ayca Tekin-Koru, “The Effect of Tax Treaties on
Multinational Firms: New Evidence from Microdata,” The World Economy, vol. 32, January 2009, pp. 77-110, and
Peter Egger, Simon Loretz, Michael Pfaffmayr, and Hannes Winner, “Bilateral Effective Tax Rates and Foreign
Direct Investment,” International Tax and Public Finance, vol. 17, December 2009, pp. 822-849.